{"schema_version":2,"research_status":"held_out_research_confirmation_complete","rule_profile":"classic_v1","suite_id":"official-large-study-v1","suite_hash":"b21341d8cd1af627870111d9c28fc38e718dfbc615d07f9bc512e2ee99cf1d32","confirmation_id":"confirm-research-tier-finalists-v1","confirmation_hash":"b8ca86c326b0d880c2e64d4e0933b87be5de0c984346b47c4c7226c726792e12","tactical_gate_hash":"106c498c764d1216d1097663311013c53a919b9d97d1d3838c3b8f40e9330ade","conclusion":"no_preregistered_difference_supported","design":{"named_strategies":17,"factorial_strategies":32,"table_ecologies":5,"exploration_rounds":25000,"exploration_games":100000,"confirmation_games":24000,"confirmation_deals":1000,"tactical_positions":10000,"exact_win_positions":1343,"total_games":124000},"takeaways":[{"title":"Start from a balanced baseline","metric":"1.1 pp","metric_label":"spread across all four finalists","guidance":"No serious finalist separated from the field. Compare immediate progress, rack risk, future options, and table exposure instead of letting one rule choose every move."},{"title":"Read the players before defending","metric":"5","metric_label":"different table ecologies tested","guidance":"Defensive value changed with the mix of opponents. Reduce an obvious extension for the next player when the cost is small; do not damage your rack to deny a threat you cannot identify."},{"title":"Manage the downside in scored play","metric":"27.68","metric_label":"Balanced's mean losing-rack penalty","guidance":"Greedy tile shedding won slightly more often, while Balanced left fewer penalty points when it lost. In a multi-game round, use points shed as the tie-breaker when two moves offer similar winning chances."}],"finalist_scorecard":[{"policy":"greedy_tiles","games":24000,"wins":6163,"win_rate":0.25679166666666664,"ci_low":0.2513039096291007,"ci_high":0.2623572674776096,"mean_score":0.4245833333333333,"mean_losing_rack":28.30077927902674,"mean_rack_tiles":3.349125},{"policy":"balanced","games":24000,"wins":6009,"win_rate":0.250375,"ci_low":0.2449342395044993,"ci_high":0.25589565805354453,"mean_score":0.366,"mean_losing_rack":27.678116836195876,"mean_rack_tiles":3.386041666666667},{"policy":"table_denial","games":24000,"wins":5928,"win_rate":0.247,"ci_low":0.24158459846271552,"ci_high":0.252496379332718,"mean_score":-0.23125,"mean_losing_rack":27.976482957060647,"mean_rack_tiles":3.4590833333333335},{"policy":"opponent_modeler","games":24000,"wins":5900,"win_rate":0.24583333333333332,"ci_low":0.2404268019780693,"ci_high":0.2513212158994249,"mean_score":-0.5593333333333333,"mean_losing_rack":28.166243093922652,"mean_rack_tiles":3.4990833333333335}],"confirmation_tests":[{"hypothesis_id":"table_denial_gt_balanced_game_win","focal_policy":"table_denial","reference_policy":"balanced","effect":-0.003375,"ci_low":-0.010608368992586149,"ci_high":0.0038583689925861483,"adjusted_p_value":1.0,"minimum_effect":0.03,"deal_clusters":1000,"status":"not_supported"},{"hypothesis_id":"table_denial_gt_opponent_modeler_game_win","focal_policy":"table_denial","reference_policy":"opponent_modeler","effect":0.0011666666666666668,"ci_low":-0.0035021183214642704,"ci_high":0.0058354516547976035,"adjusted_p_value":0.9359773366487107,"minimum_effect":0.03,"deal_clusters":1000,"status":"not_supported"},{"hypothesis_id":"opponent_modeler_gt_balanced_game_win","focal_policy":"opponent_modeler","reference_policy":"balanced","effect":-0.004541666666666667,"ci_low":-0.011733598973711401,"ci_high":0.002650265640378067,"adjusted_p_value":1.0,"minimum_effect":0.03,"deal_clusters":1000,"status":"not_supported"}],"exploration_scorecard":[{"policy":"table_denial","games":2647,"win_rate":0.33462410275783905,"ci_low":0.3261259158075326,"ci_high":0.3431222897081455,"mean_score":13.591030726608741,"mean_rack_value":17.211591739075683},{"policy":"opponent_modeler","games":2646,"win_rate":0.2833049886621315,"ci_low":0.2752164254811064,"ci_high":0.2913935518431566,"mean_score":6.108922272612749,"mean_rack_value":19.17169784580499},{"policy":"match_aware","games":2645,"win_rate":0.26899810964083176,"ci_low":0.2610790072910618,"ci_high":0.2769172119906017,"mean_score":5.833695652173913,"mean_rack_value":19.50595463137996},{"policy":"strategic_drawer","games":2648,"win_rate":0.26652190332326287,"ci_low":0.2589437980945526,"ci_high":0.27410000855197314,"mean_score":-2.3310045317220545,"mean_rack_value":26.42299219536757},{"policy":"manipulation_averse","games":2646,"win_rate":0.2655738221214412,"ci_low":0.25807466991616407,"ci_high":0.27307297432671834,"mean_score":-8.745464852607709,"mean_rack_value":30.137211829176113},{"policy":"greedy_tiles","games":2649,"win_rate":0.2605542972190764,"ci_low":0.2530202470029567,"ci_high":0.2680883474351961,"mean_score":4.511199194664653,"mean_rack_value":20.541863281741538},{"policy":"shallow_planner","games":2647,"win_rate":0.2578862863619192,"ci_low":0.2504124322322862,"ci_high":0.26536014049155215,"mean_score":4.82022100491122,"mean_rack_value":18.97279152499685},{"policy":"endgame_liquidator","games":2646,"win_rate":0.25777903754094234,"ci_low":0.24992240095978652,"ci_high":0.26563567412209815,"mean_score":2.1323381204333587,"mean_rack_value":20.4658131771227},{"policy":"greedy_points","games":2646,"win_rate":0.25763731418493324,"ci_low":0.2500723233022324,"ci_high":0.2652023050676341,"mean_score":5.087018140589569,"mean_rack_value":19.01072373393802},{"policy":"eager_beginner","games":2648,"win_rate":0.25720669687814707,"ci_low":0.24949262671139733,"ci_high":0.2649207670448968,"mean_score":4.013752517623363,"mean_rack_value":20.50106998992951},{"policy":"conservative","games":2647,"win_rate":0.25447046971414183,"ci_low":0.24616437809009645,"ci_high":0.2627765613381872,"mean_score":3.77927842840952,"mean_rack_value":19.892771691222766},{"policy":"balanced","games":2648,"win_rate":0.25355614300100704,"ci_low":0.24600413276578087,"ci_high":0.2611081532362332,"mean_score":3.6022627139979857,"mean_rack_value":19.454171387210476},{"policy":"late_opening_hoarder","games":2648,"win_rate":0.25147123615307154,"ci_low":0.24368374281080335,"ci_high":0.25925872949533973,"mean_score":-7.892450276938569,"mean_rack_value":30.67330689828802},{"policy":"joker_holder","games":2648,"win_rate":0.2502517623363545,"ci_low":0.24261423227846562,"ci_high":0.25788929239424335,"mean_score":3.6446217270896275,"mean_rack_value":18.92722494964753},{"policy":"pivot_copy_keeper","games":2646,"win_rate":0.2490551776266062,"ci_low":0.2415745186733443,"ci_high":0.25653583657986806,"mean_score":-1.3074294532627866,"mean_rack_value":23.570389266817838},{"policy":"joker_farmer","games":2648,"win_rate":0.2473407603222558,"ci_low":0.23979054557035684,"ci_high":0.25489097507415476,"mean_score":0.2752234390735146,"mean_rack_value":20.59828958962739},{"policy":"random_legal","games":2647,"win_rate":0.04402783024807959,"ci_low":0.04047020716920172,"ci_high":0.047585453326957454,"mean_score":-35.40306636443773,"mean_rack_value":39.49655270117114}],"factor_effects":[{"factor":"hold_joker","game_win_difference":0.002062497582499906,"high_n":20004,"low_n":19996},{"factor":"shed_high","game_win_difference":-0.001337492440090543,"high_n":19987,"low_n":20013},{"factor":"shed_tiles","game_win_difference":0.0006625012566250366,"high_n":19998,"low_n":20002},{"factor":"shed_points","game_win_difference":-0.0004125006260312647,"high_n":20001,"low_n":19999},{"factor":"shape_rack","game_win_difference":1.2502500500111147e-05,"high_n":19996,"low_n":20004}],"finalists":["greedy_tiles","balanced","table_denial","opponent_modeler"],"limitations":["The confirmation applies to Classic Rummikub, four research-strength agents, and their fixed all-distinct table.","No preregistered finalist comparison reached the three-percentage-point practical threshold or passed its adjusted statistical test.","Greedy tile shedding had the highest descriptive win rate in confirmation, but that specific comparison was not preregistered and remains a lead for future study.","The policies take exact rack-clearing wins and optimize their declared rack objective. They do not solve every long-range consequence of a table arrangement.","The broad screen and fixed finalist table answer different questions. Strategy strength can change with the mix of opponents."]}